Value bet: San Lorenzo to win @ 4.00 – our chance 29% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente to win ✗47% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.40
Independiente vs San Lorenzo preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Profesional Argentina sees Independiente take on San Lorenzo on Sunday 13 September, kicking off at 23:15 (WAT). Independiente are 13th with 47 points from 32 games (in the top half), while San Lorenzo sit 18th on 41 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Independiente's last 5: WLDWL Most recently they beat Central Cordoba de Santiago 1–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
San Lorenzo's last 5: WLDWL Most recently they beat Talleres Cordoba 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.2 for Independiente and 0.8 for San Lorenzo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Independiente 47%, draw 24%, San Lorenzo 29%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.62.
Value angle: San Lorenzo to win at 4.00 – 29% on our numbers against 25% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Independiente 1–0 San Lorenzo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independiente47%fair 2.11 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @2.80
San Lorenzo29%fair 3.51 · @4.00
2.04Expected goals
1.20Independiente xG
0.84San Lorenzo xG
49%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
1–113%
0–013%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Independiente 1.2 – 0.8 San Lorenzo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente to win✗
47%
2.11
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.40 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
60%
1.65
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente / FT Independiente✗
26%
3.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.40
–
Form
Independiente – last 6
WLDWLL
6 Sep
@ Central Cordoba de Santiago
1–0
W
30 Aug
vs Gimnasia M.
0–3
L
22 Aug
vs Independ. Rivadavia
0–0
D
17 Aug
@ Lanus
3–1
W
12 Aug
@ Atletico Tucuman
0–4
L
9 Aug
vs Platense
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
San Lorenzo – last 6
WLDWLL
5 Sep
vs Talleres Cordoba
1–0
W
1 Sep
@ Instituto Cordoba
0–1
L
22 Aug
@ Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
0–0
D
15 Aug
vs Union Santa Fe
1–0
W
9 Aug
vs Huracan
0–2
L
4 Aug
@ Central Cordoba de Santiago
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente and San Lorenzo.
What is the prediction for Independiente vs San Lorenzo?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Independiente vs San Lorenzo?
On our numbers Independiente have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 24% and San Lorenzo 29%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente vs San Lorenzo?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente vs San Lorenzo?
Our predicted score is Independiente 1–0 San Lorenzo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Independiente vs San Lorenzo?
Independiente vs San Lorenzo (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 23:15 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sarmiento Junin1
Belgrano Cordoba1
Tigre0
Rosario Central1
Argentinos JRS1
Gimnasia L.P.1