Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
2
Value bet: Independiente to win @ 3.50 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLanus to win ✗42% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗83% · @1.13
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.54
Lanus vs Independiente preview and prediction
The match
Lanus host Independiente in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday 17 August, with kick-off at 21:00 (WAT) at Estadio Ciudad de Lanus. Lanus are 9th with 50 points from 32 games (in the top half), while Independiente sit 13th on 47 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Lanus's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Talleres Cordoba 3–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Independiente's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Atletico Tucuman 0–4 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Lanus and 1.0 for Independiente. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.
Value angle: Independiente to win at 3.50 – 34% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Lanus 1–1 Independiente. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lanus42%fair 2.36 · @2.28
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @2.92
Independiente34%fair 2.96 · @3.50
2.18Expected goals
1.18Lanus xG
1.01Independiente xG
54%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–111%
0–011%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Lanus 1.2 – 1.0 Independiente expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lanus to win✗
42%
2.36
2.28
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
2.20 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.60
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
1.13
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lanus / FT Lanus✗
23%
4.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.54
–
Form
Lanus – last 6
WLLLWW
12 Aug
@ Talleres Cordoba
3–0
W
6 Aug
@ Union Santa Fe
1–2
L
3 Aug
vs Instituto Cordoba
0–1
L
30 Jul
@ Cienciano
0–4
L
26 Jul
vs San Lorenzo
1–0
W
23 Jul
vs Cienciano
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Independiente – last 6
LLLWWW
12 Aug
@ Atletico Tucuman
0–4
L
9 Aug
vs Platense
0–1
L
3 Aug
@ Velez Sarsfield
0–1
L
31 Jul
vs Newells Old Boys
1–0
W
26 Jul
@ Estudiantes L.P.
2–0
W
23 May
@ Union Santa Fe
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lanus and Independiente.
What is the prediction for Lanus vs Independiente?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Lanus vs Independiente?
On our numbers Lanus have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Independiente 34%.
How many goals will there be in Lanus vs Independiente?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lanus vs Independiente?
Our predicted score is Lanus 1–1 Independiente, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Lanus vs Independiente?
Lanus vs Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Ciudad de Lanus.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Barracas Central0
Rosario Central1
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto0
Atletico Tucuman1