Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Kerry to win @ 1.91 – our chance 62% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultKerry to win ✓62% · @1.91
Double chanceKerry or draw ✓87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.56
Finn Harps vs Kerry preview and prediction
The match
Kerry travel to Finn Park in the First Division on Friday 2 October (19:45 WAT) to face Finn Harps.
Form guide
Finn Harps's last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to Treaty United 1–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Kerry's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Wexford 1–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Kerry arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 24 July 2026, finished Kerry 2–1 Finn Harps. Across their last 3 meetings Finn Harps have won 1, Kerry 2, with 0 draws and 1.7 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 0.8 for Finn Harps and 1.9 for Kerry. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Finn Harps 13%, draw 25%, Kerry 62%.
Safer route: Kerry or draw (87%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Kerry to win at 1.91 – 62% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Kerry or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Finn Harps 0–1 Kerry. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Finn Harps13%fair 7.44 · @3.75
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.10
Kerry62%fair 1.62 · @1.91
2.65Expected goals
0.78Finn Harps xG
1.87Kerry xG
53%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Finn Harps 0.8 – 1.9 Kerry expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Kerry or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Finn Harps vs Kerry?
On our numbers Finn Harps have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Kerry 62%.
How many goals will there be in Finn Harps vs Kerry?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Finn Harps vs Kerry?
Our predicted score is Finn Harps 0–1 Kerry, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Finn Harps vs Kerry?
Finn Harps vs Kerry (First Division) kicks off on Friday 2 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Finn Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
