Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Longford Town to win @ 1.85 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLongford Town to win ✓62% · @1.85
Double chanceLongford Town or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓12% · fair 8.45
Finn Harps vs Longford Town preview and prediction
The match
Finn Harps host Longford Town in the First Division on Friday 18 September, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Finn Park. Finn Harps are 10th with 28 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Longford Town sit 5th on 52 points (in the top half). A gap of 24 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Finn Harps's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat Wexford 3–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 3.3 conceded.
Longford Town's last 5: LLDWL Most recently they lost to Treaty United 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 3 August 2026, finished Longford Town 5–0 Finn Harps. Across their last 2 meetings Finn Harps have won 0, Longford Town 1, with 1 draw and 4.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.8 for Finn Harps and 2.0 for Longford Town. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Finn Harps 14%, draw 23%, Longford Town 62%.
Safer route: Longford Town or draw (86%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Longford Town to win at 1.85 – 62% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Longford Town or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Finn Harps 0–1 Longford Town. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Finn Harps14%fair 7.05 · @3.70
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.30
Longford Town62%fair 1.60 · @1.85
2.81Expected goals
0.84Finn Harps xG
1.97Longford Town xG
59%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–112%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
1–36%
From our goals model: Finn Harps 0.8 – 2.0 Longford Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Our pick is Longford Town or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
On our numbers Finn Harps have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Longford Town 62%.
How many goals will there be in Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Our predicted score is Finn Harps 0–1 Longford Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Finn Harps vs Longford Town (First Division) kicks off on Friday 18 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Finn Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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