Value bet: Longford Town to win @ 1.65 – our chance 65% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLongford Town to win ✓65% · @1.65
Double chanceLongford Town or draw ✓87% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.15
Longford Town vs Finn Harps preview and prediction
The match
The First Division sees Longford Town take on Finn Harps on Monday 3 August, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Bishopsgate. Longford Town are 5th with 52 points from 36 games (in the top half), while Finn Harps sit 10th on 28 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 24 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Longford Town's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Treaty United 1–0 away. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game.
Finn Harps's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Cork City 0–3 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Longford Town arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 May 2026, finished Finn Harps 2–2 Longford Town.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Longford Town and 0.7 for Finn Harps. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Longford Town 65%, draw 22%, Finn Harps 13%.
Safer route: Longford Town or draw (87%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Longford Town to win at 1.65 – 65% on our numbers against 61% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Longford Town 2–0 Finn Harps. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Longford Town65%fair 1.54 · @1.65
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.75
Finn Harps13%fair 7.53 · @5.00
2.60Expected goals
1.88Longford Town xG
0.72Finn Harps xG
49%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Longford Town 1.9 – 0.7 Finn Harps expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Longford Town vs Finn Harps?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Longford Town vs Finn Harps?
On our numbers Longford Town have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Finn Harps 13%.
How many goals will there be in Longford Town vs Finn Harps?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Longford Town vs Finn Harps?
Our predicted score is Longford Town 2–0 Finn Harps, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Longford Town vs Finn Harps?
Longford Town vs Finn Harps (First Division) kicks off on Monday 3 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Bishopsgate.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Kerry3