Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: UCD to win @ 1.90 – our chance 64% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultUCD to win ✓64% · @1.90
Double chanceUCD or draw ✓86% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.75
Finn Harps vs UCD preview and prediction
The match
Finn Harps host UCD in the First Division on Friday 12 June, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Finn Park. Finn Harps are 10th with 28 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while UCD sit 2nd on 56 points (in the top four). A gap of 28 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Finn Harps's last 5: LDWWL Most recently they lost to Cork City 0–4 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
UCD's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Athlone Town 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
UCD arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 April 2026, finished UCD 2–1 Finn Harps. Across their last 2 meetings Finn Harps have won 1, UCD 1, with 0 draws and 3.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 0.8 for Finn Harps and 1.9 for UCD. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Finn Harps 14%, draw 22%, UCD 64%.
Safer route: UCD or draw (86%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.60.
Value angle: UCD to win at 1.90 – 64% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was UCD or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Finn Harps 0–1 UCD. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Finn Harps14%fair 7.24 · @3.75
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.60
UCD64%fair 1.56 · @1.90
2.70Expected goals
0.78Finn Harps xG
1.93UCD xG
58%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Finn Harps 0.8 – 1.9 UCD expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is UCD or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Finn Harps vs UCD?
On our numbers Finn Harps have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 22% and UCD 64%.
How many goals will there be in Finn Harps vs UCD?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Finn Harps vs UCD?
Our predicted score is Finn Harps 0–1 UCD, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Finn Harps vs UCD?
Finn Harps vs UCD (First Division) kicks off on Friday 12 June 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Finn Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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