Finn Harps vs Longford Town preview and prediction
The match
Finn Harps host Longford Town in the First Division on Friday 22 May, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Finn Park. Finn Harps are 10th with 28 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Longford Town sit 5th on 52 points (in the top half). A gap of 24 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Finn Harps's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Kerry 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Longford Town's last 5: WDLDL Most recently they beat Wexford 2–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 5. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Finn Harps and 1.1 for Longford Town. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Finn Harps 40%, draw 24%, Longford Town 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Finn Harps 1–1 Longford Town. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Finn Harps40%fair 2.53 · @2.56
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.35
Longford Town37%fair 2.72 · @2.62
2.30Expected goals
1.18Finn Harps xG
1.12Longford Town xG
59%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Finn Harps 1.2 – 1.1 Longford Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Finn Harps to win✗
40%
2.53
2.56
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.71
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Finn Harps / FT Finn Harps✗
21%
4.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.47
–
Form
Finn Harps – last 6
WWLLLL
8 May
vs Kerry
1–0
W
4 May
vs Bray Wanderers
2–1
W
1 May
@ Wexford
0–2
L
24 Apr
vs Athlone Town
1–2
L
17 Apr
@ UCD
1–2
L
10 Apr
vs Cobh Ramblers
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Longford Town – last 6
WDLDLD
8 May
@ Wexford
2–1
W
4 May
vs Athlone Town
1–1
D
1 May
@ UCD
0–2
L
17 Apr
@ Cobh Ramblers
0–0
D
6 Apr
@ Athlone Town
0–2
L
3 Apr
@ Treaty United
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Finn Harps and Longford Town.
What is the prediction for Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
On our numbers Finn Harps have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Longford Town 37%.
How many goals will there be in Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Our predicted score is Finn Harps 1–1 Longford Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Finn Harps vs Longford Town (First Division) kicks off on Friday 22 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Finn Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Kerry2