Value bet: Finn Harps to win @ 3.15 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultKerry to win ✓39% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.22
Kerry vs Finn Harps preview and prediction
The match
The First Division sees Kerry take on Finn Harps on Friday 20 March, kicking off at 20:45 (WAT) at Mounthawk Park.
Form guide
Kerry's last 5: DDDLL Most recently they drew with Wexford 1–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Finn Harps's last 5: DDDWL Most recently they drew with Treaty United 2–2 at home. They average 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Finn Harps arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.6.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Kerry and 1.2 for Finn Harps. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Kerry 39%, draw 24%, Finn Harps 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Finn Harps to win at 3.15 – 37% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Kerry 1–1 Finn Harps. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Kerry39%fair 2.58 · @2.28
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.15
Finn Harps37%fair 2.71 · @3.15
2.53Expected goals
1.29Kerry xG
1.25Finn Harps xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Kerry 1.3 – 1.2 Finn Harps expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Kerry to win✓
39%
2.58
2.28
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Kerry / FT Kerry✓
22%
4.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.22
–
Form
Kerry – last 5
DDDLL
13 Mar
@ Wexford
1–1
D
6 Mar
@ Treaty United
2–2
D
27 Feb
vs Longford Town
1–1
D
20 Feb
vs Athlone Town
0–1
L
13 Feb
@ UCD
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
80%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Finn Harps – last 5
DDDWL
13 Mar
vs Treaty United
2–2
D
6 Mar
vs Wexford
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Cobh Ramblers
1–1
D
20 Feb
vs UCD
2–1
W
13 Feb
@ Athlone Town
1–2
L
1.4Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
100%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kerry and Finn Harps.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Kerry vs Finn Harps?
On our numbers Kerry have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Finn Harps 37%.
How many goals will there be in Kerry vs Finn Harps?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kerry vs Finn Harps?
Our predicted score is Kerry 1–1 Finn Harps, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Kerry vs Finn Harps?
Kerry vs Finn Harps (First Division) kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Mounthawk Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
