Value bet: Longford Town to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultKerry to win ✗40% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.92
Kerry vs Longford Town preview and prediction
The match
The First Division sees Kerry take on Longford Town on Friday 27 February, kicking off at 20:45 (WAT) at Mounthawk Park.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Kerry and 1.2 for Longford Town. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Kerry 40%, draw 24%, Longford Town 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Longford Town to win at 3.10 – 36% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Kerry 1–1 Longford Town. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Kerry40%fair 2.50 · @2.28
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.25
Longford Town36%fair 2.79 · @3.10
2.41Expected goals
1.25Kerry xG
1.16Longford Town xG
55%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Kerry 1.2 – 1.2 Longford Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Kerry to win✗
40%
2.50
2.28
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Kerry / FT Kerry✗
22%
4.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.92
–
Form
Kerry – last 2
LL
20 Feb
vs Athlone Town
0–1
L
13 Feb
@ UCD
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Longford Town – last 1
D
13 Feb
@ Bray Wanderers
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kerry and Longford Town.
What is the prediction for Kerry vs Longford Town?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Kerry vs Longford Town?
On our numbers Kerry have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Longford Town 36%.
How many goals will there be in Kerry vs Longford Town?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kerry vs Longford Town?
Our predicted score is Kerry 1–1 Longford Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Kerry vs Longford Town?
Kerry vs Longford Town (First Division) kicks off on Friday 27 February 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Mounthawk Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
