Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Shelbourne to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultShelbourne to win ✗60% · @1.85
Double chanceShelbourne or draw ✗86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.27
Shelbourne vs Dundalk preview and prediction
The match
The Premier Division sees Shelbourne take on Dundalk on Friday 3 April, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at Tolka Park. Shelbourne are 4th with 49 points from 36 games (in the top four), while Dundalk sit 6th on 45 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Shelbourne's last 5: DWDLW Most recently they drew with Bohemians 0–0 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Dundalk's last 5: DWDLD Most recently they drew with Bohemians 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.9 for Shelbourne and 0.9 for Dundalk. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 50%.
Value angle: Shelbourne to win at 1.85 – 60% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Shelbourne or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Shelbourne 1–0 Dundalk. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Shelbourne60%fair 1.67 · @1.85
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.20
Dundalk14%fair 6.90 · @4.20
2.75Expected goals
1.89Shelbourne xG
0.86Dundalk xG
50%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%
From our goals model: Shelbourne 1.9 – 0.9 Dundalk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Shelbourne to win✗
60%
1.67
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Shelbourne or draw✗
86%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
–
Half-time result
Shelbourne ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Shelbourne / FT Shelbourne✗
39%
2.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.27
–
Form
Shelbourne – last 6
DWDLWD
16 Mar
vs Bohemians
0–0
D
13 Mar
@ Derry City
2–1
W
9 Mar
vs Shamrock Rovers
2–2
D
6 Mar
vs St Patrick's Athl.
2–3
L
27 Feb
@ Drogheda United
2–1
W
20 Feb
vs Galway United
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Dundalk – last 6
DWDLDD
20 Mar
@ Bohemians
1–1
D
16 Mar
vs Sligo Rovers
1–0
W
6 Mar
@ Galway United
2–2
D
27 Feb
@ St Patrick's Athl.
0–4
L
23 Feb
@ Shamrock Rovers
1–1
D
20 Feb
vs Drogheda United
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Shelbourne and Dundalk.
Our pick is Shelbourne or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
On our numbers Shelbourne have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Dundalk 14%.
How many goals will there be in Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our predicted score is Shelbourne 1–0 Dundalk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Shelbourne vs Dundalk (Premier Division) kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Tolka Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
