Dundalk travel to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in the Premier Division on Friday 13 February (20:45 WAT) to face Derry City. Derry City are 5th with 48 points from 36 games (in the top half), while Dundalk sit 6th on 45 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.1 for Derry City and 0.7 for Dundalk. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Derry City 68%, draw 22%, Dundalk 10%.
Safer route: Derry City or draw (90%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.95.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Derry City to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.46, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Derry City 2–0 Dundalk. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Derry City68%fair 1.46 · @1.62
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.60
Dundalk10%fair 10.10 · @5.75
2.76Expected goals
2.07Derry City xG
0.69Dundalk xG
53%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–014%
1–013%
3–09%
2–19%
1–19%
3–16%
From our goals model: Derry City 2.1 – 0.7 Dundalk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Derry City to win✗
68%
1.46
1.62 ▲
Double chance
Derry City or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.28
Half-time result
Derry City ahead at half-time✗
50%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Derry City / FT Derry City✗
46%
2.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
14%
7.35
–
Form
Derry City
No recent results on record.
Dundalk
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derry City and Dundalk.
Our pick is Derry City to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Derry City vs Dundalk?
On our numbers Derry City have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Dundalk 10%.
How many goals will there be in Derry City vs Dundalk?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our predicted score is Derry City 2–0 Dundalk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Derry City vs Dundalk?
Derry City vs Dundalk (Premier Division) kicks off on Friday 13 February 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
