Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.59 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.59Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultToluca to win ✓64% · @1.59
Double chanceToluca or draw ✓85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.50
Toluca vs Leon preview and prediction
The match
Leon travel to Estadio Nemesio Diez in the Liga MX on Sunday 26 April (02:05 WAT) to face Toluca. Toluca are 4th with 27 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Leon sit 7th on 23 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Toluca's last 5: LLWDW Most recently they lost to Mazatlán 3–4 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Leon's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Club America 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Leon arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.1 for Toluca and 0.9 for Leon. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 61% and both teams to score at 63%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Toluca 64%, draw 21%, Leon 15%.
Safer route: Toluca or draw (85%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.55.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Toluca to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.59. Predicted score: Toluca 2–0 Leon. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Toluca64%fair 1.57 · @1.59
Draw21%fair 4.72 · @4.35
Leon15%fair 6.70 · @4.75
3.07Expected goals
2.13Toluca xG
0.94Leon xG
63%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
2–110%
1–010%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Toluca 2.1 – 0.9 Leon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✓
64%
1.57
1.59
Double chance
Toluca or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
1.15
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
1.62
Half-time result
Toluca ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
42%
2.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.50
–
Form
Toluca – last 6
LLWDWL
23 Apr
@ Mazatlán
3–4
L
19 Apr
@ Club America
1–2
L
16 Apr
@ Los Angeles Galaxy
3–0
W
13 Apr
vs Atletico San Luis
1–1
D
9 Apr
vs Los Angeles Galaxy
4–2
W
5 Apr
@ Club Queretaro
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Leon – last 6
LWWWWL
22 Apr
vs Club America
2–3
L
19 Apr
vs FC Juarez
3–1
W
11 Apr
@ Puebla
1–0
W
5 Apr
vs Atlas
2–0
W
22 Mar
@ Atletico San Luis
2–1
W
19 Mar
@ Guadalajara Chivas
0–5
L
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toluca and Leon.
Our pick is Toluca to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.59.
Who will win Toluca vs Leon?
On our numbers Toluca have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Leon 15%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs Leon?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs Leon?
Our predicted score is Toluca 2–0 Leon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs Leon?
Toluca vs Leon (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 02:05 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mazatlán1