Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.51 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.51Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMonterrey to win ✓63% · @1.51
Double chanceMonterrey or draw ✓83% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.07
Monterrey vs Puebla preview and prediction
The match
Puebla travel to Estadio BBVA in the Liga MX on Wednesday 22 April (04:05 WAT) to face Monterrey. Monterrey are 10th with 21 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Puebla sit 13th on 19 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Monterrey's last 5: LDLLD Most recently they lost to Pachuca 1–3 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Puebla's last 5: LLDLD Most recently they lost to Guadalajara Chivas 0–5 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.1 for Monterrey and 1.0 for Puebla. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Monterrey 63%, draw 19%, Puebla 17%.
Safer route: Monterrey or draw (83%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Monterrey to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.51. Predicted score: Monterrey 2–0 Puebla. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Monterrey63%fair 1.58 · @1.51
Draw19%fair 5.15 · @4.30
Puebla17%fair 5.75 · @5.70
3.11Expected goals
2.11Monterrey xG
1.00Puebla xG
59%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Monterrey 2.1 – 1.0 Puebla expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monterrey to win✓
63%
1.58
1.51
Double chance
Monterrey or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.57
Half-time result
Monterrey ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monterrey / FT Monterrey✓
40%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.07
–
Form
Monterrey – last 6
LDLLDD
19 Apr
vs Pachuca
1–3
L
12 Apr
@ Atlas
0–0
D
5 Apr
vs Atletico San Luis
1–2
L
22 Mar
vs Guadalajara Chivas
2–3
L
18 Mar
@ Cruz Azul
1–1
D
14 Mar
@ FC Juarez
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Puebla – last 6
LLDLDL
19 Apr
@ Guadalajara Chivas
0–5
L
11 Apr
vs Leon
0–1
L
4 Apr
vs FC Juarez
1–1
D
23 Mar
@ Santos Laguna
1–2
L
14 Mar
vs Necaxa
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Pachuca
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monterrey and Puebla.
Our pick is Monterrey to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.51.
Who will win Monterrey vs Puebla?
On our numbers Monterrey have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Puebla 17%.
How many goals will there be in Monterrey vs Puebla?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monterrey vs Puebla?
Our predicted score is Monterrey 2–0 Puebla, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Monterrey vs Puebla?
Monterrey vs Puebla (Liga MX) kicks off on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 04:05 (West Africa Time) at Estadio BBVA.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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