Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas preview and prediction
The match
Monterrey host Guadalajara Chivas in the Liga MX on Sunday 22 March, with kick-off at 02:05 (WAT) at Estadio BBVA. Monterrey are 10th with 21 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Guadalajara Chivas sit 3rd on 30 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Monterrey's last 5: DDLLW Most recently they drew with Cruz Azul 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Guadalajara Chivas's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Leon 5–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Guadalajara Chivas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.3 for Monterrey and 1.6 for Guadalajara Chivas. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations.
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Monterrey 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Monterrey33%fair 3.03 · @3.15
Draw20%fair 4.90 · @3.60
Guadalajara Chivas47%fair 2.14 · @2.10
2.91Expected goals
1.30Monterrey xG
1.61Guadalajara Chivas xG
62%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
2–17%
1–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Monterrey 1.3 – 1.6 Guadalajara Chivas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guadalajara Chivas to win✓
47%
2.14
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.60
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
1.38
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Guadalajara Chivas / FT Guadalajara Chivas✓
27%
3.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.90
–
Form
Monterrey – last 6
DDLLWL
18 Mar
@ Cruz Azul
1–1
D
14 Mar
@ FC Juarez
2–2
D
11 Mar
vs Cruz Azul
2–3
L
8 Mar
@ Tigres UANL
0–1
L
5 Mar
vs Club Queretaro
4–0
W
1 Mar
vs Cruz Azul
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Guadalajara Chivas – last 6
WWWLLW
19 Mar
vs Leon
5–0
W
15 Mar
vs Santos Laguna
3–0
W
8 Mar
@ Atlas
2–1
W
1 Mar
@ Toluca
0–2
L
22 Feb
@ Cruz Azul
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs Club America
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monterrey and Guadalajara Chivas.
What is the prediction for Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas?
On our numbers Monterrey have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Guadalajara Chivas 47%.
How many goals will there be in Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our predicted score is Monterrey 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 02:05 (West Africa Time) at Estadio BBVA.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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