Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.90 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.90Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultToluca to win ✗65% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✗84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.40
Pachuca vs Toluca preview and prediction
The match
The Liga MX sees Pachuca take on Toluca on Monday 23 March, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo. Pachuca are 8th with 22 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Toluca sit 4th on 27 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Pachuca's last 5: DWWLW Most recently they drew with Atletico San Luis 1–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Toluca's last 5: WDLWW Most recently they beat San Diego 4–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.9 for Pachuca and 1.9 for Toluca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Pachuca 19%, draw 16%, Toluca 65%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Toluca to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.90, above our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Pachuca 0–1 Toluca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pachuca19%fair 5.26 · @3.65
Draw16%fair 6.33 · @3.70
Toluca65%fair 1.53 · @1.90
2.78Expected goals
0.86Pachuca xG
1.92Toluca xG
56%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–112%
0–211%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
1–36%
From our goals model: Pachuca 0.9 – 1.9 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✗
65%
1.53
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.42
Half-time result
Toluca ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
40%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.40
–
Form
Pachuca – last 6
DWWLWW
15 Mar
@ Atletico San Luis
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Puebla
2–1
W
4 Mar
vs Necaxa
2–1
W
28 Feb
@ Mazatlán
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Tigres UANL
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Atlas
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Toluca – last 6
WDLWWW
19 Mar
vs San Diego
4–0
W
15 Mar
vs Atlas
1–1
D
12 Mar
@ San Diego
2–3
L
9 Mar
vs FC Juarez
3–1
W
4 Mar
@ U.N.A.M. - Pumas
3–2
W
1 Mar
vs Guadalajara Chivas
2–0
W
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pachuca and Toluca.
Our pick is Toluca to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.90.
Who will win Pachuca vs Toluca?
On our numbers Pachuca have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Toluca 65%.
How many goals will there be in Pachuca vs Toluca?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pachuca vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is Pachuca 0–1 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Pachuca vs Toluca?
Pachuca vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Monday 23 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
