Value bet: Mazatlán to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeon to win ✗43% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.35
Mazatlán vs Leon preview and prediction
The match
Leon travel to Estadio de Mazatlan in the Liga MX on Saturday 7 March (02:00 WAT) to face Mazatlán.
Form guide
Mazatlán's last 4: LWDW Most recently they lost to Atletico San Luis 1–4 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Leon's last 3: WWL Most recently they beat Necaxa 2–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.3 for Mazatlán and 1.5 for Leon. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mazatlán 35%, draw 23%, Leon 43%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Mazatlán to win at 3.10 – 35% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Mazatlán 1–1 Leon. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mazatlán35%fair 2.89 · @3.10
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.45
Leon43%fair 2.35 · @2.18
2.77Expected goals
1.30Mazatlán xG
1.47Leon xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Mazatlán 1.3 – 1.5 Leon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leon to win✗
43%
2.35
2.18
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.38
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leon / FT Leon✗
24%
4.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.35
–
Form
Mazatlán – last 4
LWDW
4 Mar
@ Atletico San Luis
1–4
L
28 Feb
vs Pachuca
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Club Tijuana
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ Santos Laguna
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Leon – last 3
WWL
1 Mar
vs Necaxa
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Santos Laguna
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Monterrey
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mazatlán and Leon.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Mazatlán vs Leon?
On our numbers Mazatlán have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Leon 43%.
How many goals will there be in Mazatlán vs Leon?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mazatlán vs Leon?
Our predicted score is Mazatlán 1–1 Leon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Mazatlán vs Leon?
Mazatlán vs Leon (Liga MX) kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Mazatlan.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
