Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
1
Value bet: Sao Paulo to win @ 2.60 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSao Paulo to win ✗41% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.03
Sao Paulo vs Corinthians preview and prediction
The match
Sao Paulo host Corinthians in the Serie A on Thursday 5 November, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira. Sao Paulo are 10th with 44 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Corinthians sit 17th on 37 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Sao Paulo's last 5: LDWWL Most recently they lost to Bahia 2–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Corinthians's last 5: WLDLL Most recently they beat Mirassol 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Sao Paulo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Sao Paulo and 1.1 for Corinthians. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sao Paulo 41%, draw 26%, Corinthians 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Sao Paulo to win at 2.60 – 41% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Sao Paulo 1–1 Corinthians. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sao Paulo41%fair 2.45 · @2.60
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @3.00
Corinthians33%fair 3.00 · @3.00
2.28Expected goals
1.21Sao Paulo xG
1.06Corinthians xG
51%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 1.2 – 1.1 Corinthians expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sao Paulo to win✗
41%
2.45
2.60 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
2.05
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sao Paulo / FT Sao Paulo✗
23%
4.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.03
–
Form
Sao Paulo – last 6
LDWWLL
29 Oct
@ Bahia
2–3
L
24 Oct
@ Mirassol
1–1
D
18 Oct
vs Vasco DA Gama
1–0
W
11 Oct
vs Vitoria
2–1
W
8 Oct
@ Cruzeiro
0–2
L
3 Oct
vs Santos
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Corinthians – last 6
WLDLLL
31 Oct
vs Mirassol
2–0
W
24 Oct
@ Vasco DA Gama
2–3
L
20 Oct
vs Vitoria
1–1
D
11 Oct
@ Palmeiras
1–4
L
7 Oct
@ Internacional
1–2
L
20 Sep
vs Fluminense
1–3
L
1.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sao Paulo and Corinthians.
What is the prediction for Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Corinthians 33%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 1–1 Corinthians, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
Sao Paulo vs Corinthians (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 5 November 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
