Serie A · Brazil · Estadio Olimpico Nilton SantosBotafogo vs Atletico-MG prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Botafogo 2.0 – 0.8 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Botafogo are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 15% for Atletico-MG.
Botafogo have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.7 per game. Atletico-MG have 6 points from their last 6 (2W 0D 4L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.8 goals (2.0 for Botafogo, 0.8 for Atletico-MG). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 55%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.29.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Botafogo to win ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | 1.62 |
| Double chance | Botafogo or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.17 | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 55% | 1.82 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.22 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.84 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 67% | 1.49 | 1.44 |
| Half-time result | Botafogo ahead at half-time ✓ | 46% | 2.16 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Botafogo / FT Botafogo ✓ | 41% | 2.41 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 12% | 8.40 | – |
Form
Botafogo – last 6
| 29 Oct | @ Remo | 1–2 | L |
| 24 Oct | @ Internacional | 0–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Chapecoense-sc | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Oct | @ Coritiba | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Oct | vs Vasco DA Gama | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | @ Mirassol | 0–2 | L |
Atletico-MG – last 6
| 1 Nov | @ Gremio | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Oct | vs Cruzeiro | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Oct | @ Flamengo | 2–3 | L |
| 21 Oct | @ Atletico Torque | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Coritiba | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs Atletico Torque | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Botafogo and Atletico-MG.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
On our numbers Botafogo have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Atletico-MG 15%.
How many goals will there be in Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
Botafogo vs Atletico-MG (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 5 November 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.