Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.33Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFlamengo to win ✓74% · @1.14
Double chanceFlamengo or draw ✓90% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · @1.10
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗12% · fair 8.26
Flamengo vs Gremio preview and prediction
The match
Flamengo host Gremio in the Serie A on Wednesday 4 November, with kick-off at 23:30 (WAT) at Estádio do Maracanã. Flamengo are 1st with 76 points from 34 games (top of the table), while Gremio sit 18th on 37 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 39 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Flamengo's last 5: WWDWD Most recently they beat Vasco DA Gama 4–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Gremio's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Atletico-MG 2–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Flamengo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 10 May 2026, finished Gremio 0–1 Flamengo.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.4 for Flamengo and 0.8 for Gremio. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 67% and both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Flamengo 74%, draw 16%, Gremio 10%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Flamengo 3–0 Gremio. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Flamengo74%fair 1.35 · @1.14
Draw16%fair 6.15 · @8.00
Gremio10%fair 10.47 · @17.00
3.20Expected goals
2.44Flamengo xG
0.76Gremio xG
56%Both score
67%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–010%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–18%
From our goals model: Flamengo 2.4 – 0.8 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Flamengo vs Gremio?
On our numbers Flamengo have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Gremio 10%.
How many goals will there be in Flamengo vs Gremio?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Flamengo vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Flamengo 3–0 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Flamengo vs Gremio?
Flamengo vs Gremio (Serie A) kicks off on Wednesday 4 November 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Maracanã.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
