Value bet: Vasco DA Gama to win @ 3.50 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Paranaense to win ✗45% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.53
Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Atletico Paranaense take on Vasco DA Gama on Wednesday 4 November, kicking off at 23:30 (WAT) at Arena da Baixada. Atletico Paranaense are 5th with 54 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Vasco DA Gama sit 13th on 41 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Atletico Paranaense's last 5: LDLWD Most recently they lost to Gremio 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Vasco DA Gama's last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to Palmeiras 0–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 11 May 2026, finished Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Atletico Paranaense.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Atletico Paranaense and 1.3 for Vasco DA Gama. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: Vasco DA Gama to win at 3.50 – 34% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Vasco DA Gama. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Paranaense45%fair 2.21 · @2.05
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @3.40
Vasco DA Gama34%fair 2.96 · @3.50
2.77Expected goals
1.51Atletico Paranaense xG
1.26Vasco DA Gama xG
57%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: Atletico Paranaense 1.5 – 1.3 Vasco DA Gama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
On our numbers Atletico Paranaense have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Vasco DA Gama 34%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our predicted score is Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Vasco DA Gama, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama (Serie A) kicks off on Wednesday 4 November 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena da Baixada.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
