Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Bahia to win @ 1.85 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBahia to win ✓62% · @1.85
Double chanceBahia or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.90
Bahia vs Sao Paulo preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Bahia take on Sao Paulo on Thursday 29 October, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Arena Fonte Nova. Bahia are 6th with 53 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Sao Paulo sit 10th on 44 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Bahia's last 5: DLWLL Most recently they drew with Santos 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Sao Paulo's last 5: DWWLL Most recently they drew with Mirassol 1–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Sao Paulo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Bahia and 0.8 for Sao Paulo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bahia 62%, draw 20%, Sao Paulo 18%.
Safer route: Bahia or draw (82%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Bahia to win at 1.85 – 62% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Bahia or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Bahia 1–0 Sao Paulo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bahia62%fair 1.61 · @1.85
Draw20%fair 5.05 · @3.50
Sao Paulo18%fair 5.54 · @3.70
2.47Expected goals
1.71Bahia xG
0.76Sao Paulo xG
57%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Bahia 1.7 – 0.8 Sao Paulo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bahia to win✓
62%
1.61
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Bahia or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.77
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bahia / FT Bahia✗
37%
2.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
6.90
–
Form
Bahia – last 6
DLWLLW
25 Oct
@ Santos
1–1
D
18 Oct
vs Flamengo
0–3
L
11 Oct
vs Mirassol
1–0
W
9 Oct
@ Palmeiras
0–1
L
20 Sep
@ Atletico Paranaense
1–2
L
15 Sep
vs Remo
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sao Paulo – last 6
DWWLLW
24 Oct
@ Mirassol
1–1
D
18 Oct
vs Vasco DA Gama
1–0
W
11 Oct
vs Vitoria
2–1
W
8 Oct
@ Cruzeiro
0–2
L
3 Oct
vs Santos
1–2
L
20 Sep
vs Internacional
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bahia and Sao Paulo.
Our pick is Bahia or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
On our numbers Bahia have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sao Paulo 18%.
How many goals will there be in Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Our predicted score is Bahia 1–0 Sao Paulo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Bahia vs Sao Paulo (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 29 October 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Nova.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
