Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.53Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico-MG to win ✓61% · @1.53
Double chanceAtletico-MG or draw ✓81% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓12% · fair 8.14
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba preview and prediction
The match
Atletico-MG host Coritiba in the Serie A on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 22:30 (WAT) at MRV Arena. Atletico-MG are 7th with 50 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Coritiba sit 12th on 42 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Atletico-MG's last 5: WWDWD Most recently they beat Atletico Torque 3–0 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 5. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Coritiba's last 5: DLLDL Most recently they drew with Botafogo 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.8 conceded.
Atletico-MG arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.8 for Atletico-MG and 0.9 for Coritiba. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Atletico-MG to win – a 61% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Atletico-MG 1–0 Coritiba. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico-MG61%fair 1.63 · @1.53
Draw20%fair 4.98 · @3.90
Coritiba19%fair 5.34 · @5.50
2.70Expected goals
1.83Atletico-MG xG
0.87Coritiba xG
57%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Atletico-MG 1.8 – 0.9 Coritiba expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico-MG to win✓
61%
1.63
1.53
Double chance
Atletico-MG or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Half-time result
Atletico-MG ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico-MG / FT Atletico-MG✗
38%
2.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
12%
8.14
–
Form
Atletico-MG – last 6
WWDWDW
14 Oct
vs Atletico Torque
3–0
W
11 Oct
vs Santos
2–1
W
9 Oct
@ Atletico Paranaense
2–2
D
3 Oct
vs RB Bragantino
1–0
W
19 Sep
vs Chapecoense-sc
1–1
D
16 Sep
vs Santos
4–2
W
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Coritiba – last 6
DLLDLW
12 Oct
vs Botafogo
1–1
D
9 Oct
@ Fluminense
0–4
L
20 Sep
@ Vasco DA Gama
0–5
L
12 Sep
vs Atletico Paranaense
3–3
D
6 Sep
vs Mirassol
1–2
L
1 Sep
@ Remo
3–2
W
1.3Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico-MG and Coritiba.
What is the prediction for Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
Our pick is Atletico-MG to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
On our numbers Atletico-MG have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Coritiba 19%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
Our predicted score is Atletico-MG 1–0 Coritiba, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at MRV Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
