Serie A · Brazil · Arena da BaixadaAtletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.70 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Palmeiras to win @ 2.38 – our chance 45% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Atletico Paranaense 1.2 – 1.4 Palmeiras expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Palmeiras shade it despite being away from home – 45% to win, against 33% for Atletico Paranaense.
Atletico Paranaense have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 2.5 and conceding 2.2 per game. Palmeiras have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. Palmeiras come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.2 for Atletico Paranaense, 1.4 for Palmeiras). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 60%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 60% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.70 is close to our fair price of 1.68. For a bigger price, Palmeiras to win at 2.38 is our value angle (45% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Palmeiras to win ✓ | 45% | 2.22 | 2.38 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 60% | 1.68 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.35 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.96 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.34 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras ✓ | 25% | 3.94 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 10% | 9.60 | – |
Form
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
| 12 Oct | @ Chapecoense-sc | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Atletico-MG | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Bahia | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Coritiba | 3–3 | D |
| 6 Sep | @ Cruzeiro | 1–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | vs Fluminense | 3–3 | D |
Palmeiras – last 6
| 15 Oct | @ Fluminense | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Corinthians | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Bahia | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Gremio | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Sep | @ LDU de Quito | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Sao Paulo | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
On our numbers Atletico Paranaense have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Palmeiras 45%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena da Baixada.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.