Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc preview and prediction
The match
Atletico-MG host Chapecoense-sc in the Serie A on Saturday 19 September, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Arena MRV. Atletico-MG are 7th with 50 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Chapecoense-sc sit 20th on 21 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 29 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Atletico-MG's last 5: WWLLW Most recently they beat Santos 4–2 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Chapecoense-sc's last 5: LWLWD Most recently they lost to Internacional 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Atletico-MG arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 2 April 2026, finished Chapecoense-sc 0–4 Atletico-MG.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Atletico-MG and 0.8 for Chapecoense-sc. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 51%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Atletico-MG to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Atletico-MG 2–0 Chapecoense-sc. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico-MG68%fair 1.47 · @1.40
Draw18%fair 5.59 · @4.33
Chapecoense-sc14%fair 7.14 · @6.50
2.81Expected goals
2.04Atletico-MG xG
0.77Chapecoense-sc xG
51%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–013%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–17%
From our goals model: Atletico-MG 2.0 – 0.8 Chapecoense-sc expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our pick is Atletico-MG to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
On our numbers Atletico-MG have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Chapecoense-sc 14%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our predicted score is Atletico-MG 2–0 Chapecoense-sc, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena MRV.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
