Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVitoria to win ✓46% · @2.34
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓11% · fair 9.46
Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama preview and prediction
The match
Vasco DA Gama travel to Estádio Manoel Barradas in the Serie A on Thursday 16 July (23:30 WAT) to face Vitoria. Vitoria are 15th with 38 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Vasco DA Gama sit 13th on 41 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Vitoria's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Fortaleza EC 2–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
Vasco DA Gama's last 5: LWLLD Most recently they lost to Atletico-MG 0–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Vitoria arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Vitoria and 1.2 for Vasco DA Gama. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vitoria 46%, draw 22%, Vasco DA Gama 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.80 – 60% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Vitoria 1–1 Vasco DA Gama. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vitoria46%fair 2.19 · @2.34
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.30
Vasco DA Gama33%fair 3.08 · @2.95
2.62Expected goals
1.45Vitoria xG
1.17Vasco DA Gama xG
60%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Vitoria 1.4 – 1.2 Vasco DA Gama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vitoria to win✓
46%
2.19
2.34 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.68
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.40
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vitoria / FT Vitoria✗
26%
3.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
11%
9.46
–
Form
Vitoria – last 6
WWLWWL
6 Jun
vs Fortaleza EC
2–1
W
3 Jun
@ Fortaleza EC
2–1
W
31 May
@ Santos
1–3
L
28 May
@ ABC
4–3
W
21 May
vs ABC
6–2
W
17 May
@ RB Bragantino
0–2
L
2.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Vasco DA Gama – last 6
LWLLDW
31 May
vs Atletico-MG
0–1
L
27 May
vs Barracas Central
3–0
W
25 May
vs RB Bragantino
0–3
L
20 May
@ Olimpia
1–3
L
13 May
vs Paysandu
2–2
D
11 May
vs Atletico Paranaense
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vitoria and Vasco DA Gama.
What is the prediction for Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama?
On our numbers Vitoria have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Vasco DA Gama 33%.
How many goals will there be in Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our predicted score is Vitoria 1–1 Vasco DA Gama, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama?
Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 16 July 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
