Value bet: Santos to win @ 3.65 – our chance 31% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBotafogo to win ✓48% · @1.97
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.70
Botafogo vs Santos preview and prediction
The match
Santos travel to Estádio Nilton Santos in the Serie A on Thursday 16 July (23:30 WAT) to face Botafogo. Botafogo are 11th with 42 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Santos sit 9th on 47 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Botafogo's last 5: LWWWL Most recently they lost to Bahia 1–2 away. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Santos's last 5: WWDLW Most recently they beat Vitoria 3–1 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.7 for Botafogo and 1.3 for Santos. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Botafogo 48%, draw 21%, Santos 31%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Santos to win at 3.65 – 31% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Botafogo 1–1 Santos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Botafogo48%fair 2.07 · @1.97
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.45
Santos31%fair 3.25 · @3.65
3.04Expected goals
1.72Botafogo xG
1.32Santos xG
63%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–27%
2–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: Botafogo 1.7 – 1.3 Santos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Botafogo to win✓
48%
2.07
1.97
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.58
1.67 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.36
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.56
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Botafogo / FT Botafogo✓
29%
3.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
10.70
–
Form
Botafogo – last 6
LWWWLW
30 May
@ Bahia
1–2
L
27 May
@ Caracas FC
3–1
W
21 May
@ Independiente Petrolero
3–0
W
17 May
vs Corinthians
3–1
W
14 May
@ Chapecoense-sc
0–2
L
7 May
vs Racing Club
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Santos – last 6
WWDLWD
31 May
vs Vitoria
3–1
W
27 May
vs Deportivo Cuenca
3–0
W
20 May
vs San Lorenzo
2–2
D
17 May
vs Coritiba
0–3
L
13 May
@ Coritiba
2–0
W
6 May
@ Deportivo Recoleta
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Botafogo and Santos.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Botafogo vs Santos?
On our numbers Botafogo have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Santos 31%.
How many goals will there be in Botafogo vs Santos?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Botafogo vs Santos?
Our predicted score is Botafogo 1–1 Santos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Botafogo vs Santos?
Botafogo vs Santos (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 16 July 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Nilton Santos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
