Value bet: Mirassol to win @ 3.20 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBotafogo to win ✓44% · @2.16
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.14
Botafogo vs Mirassol preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Botafogo take on Mirassol on Wednesday 1 April, kicking off at 23:30 (WAT) at Estádio Nilton Santos. Botafogo are 11th with 42 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Mirassol sit 14th on 40 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Botafogo's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Atletico Paranaense 1–4 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Mirassol's last 3: LDL Most recently they lost to Coritiba 0–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Botafogo and 1.3 for Mirassol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Mirassol to win at 3.20 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Botafogo 1–1 Mirassol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Botafogo44%fair 2.26 · @2.16
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.35
Mirassol34%fair 2.94 · @3.20
2.84Expected goals
1.53Botafogo xG
1.30Mirassol xG
55%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–28%
0–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Botafogo 1.5 – 1.3 Mirassol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Botafogo to win✓
44%
2.26
2.16
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Botafogo / FT Botafogo✓
25%
3.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.14
–
Form
Botafogo – last 6
LLLLDD
29 Mar
@ Atletico Paranaense
1–4
L
18 Mar
@ Palmeiras
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Flamengo
0–3
L
11 Mar
vs Barcelona SC
0–1
L
4 Mar
@ Barcelona SC
1–1
D
28 Feb
vs Boavista SC
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Mirassol – last 3
LDL
19 Mar
vs Coritiba
0–1
L
11 Mar
vs Santos
2–2
D
16 Feb
vs Portuguesa
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Botafogo and Mirassol.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Botafogo vs Mirassol?
On our numbers Botafogo have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Mirassol 34%.
How many goals will there be in Botafogo vs Mirassol?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Botafogo vs Mirassol?
Our predicted score is Botafogo 1–1 Mirassol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Botafogo vs Mirassol?
Botafogo vs Mirassol (Serie A) kicks off on Wednesday 1 April 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Nilton Santos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
