Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 56% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSao Paulo to win ✓68% · @1.39
Double chanceSao Paulo or draw ✓89% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.41
Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc preview and prediction
The match
Sao Paulo host Chapecoense-sc in the Serie A on Friday 13 March, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estádio Doutor Oswaldo Teixeira Duarte. Sao Paulo are 10th with 44 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Chapecoense-sc sit 20th on 21 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 23 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sao Paulo's last 3: LWW Most recently they lost to Palmeiras 1–2 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.2 for Sao Paulo and 0.8 for Chapecoense-sc. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 55% and both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sao Paulo 68%, draw 21%, Chapecoense-sc 11%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – 56% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Sao Paulo 2–0 Chapecoense-sc. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sao Paulo68%fair 1.46 · @1.39
Draw21%fair 4.84 · @4.30
Chapecoense-sc11%fair 9.09 · @8.50
2.96Expected goals
2.18Sao Paulo xG
0.78Chapecoense-sc xG
56%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
3–09%
1–19%
3–17%
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 2.2 – 0.8 Chapecoense-sc expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sao Paulo to win✓
68%
1.46
1.39
Double chance
Sao Paulo or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.38
Half-time result
Sao Paulo ahead at half-time✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sao Paulo / FT Sao Paulo✗
46%
2.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.41
–
Form
Sao Paulo – last 3
LWW
2 Mar
@ Palmeiras
1–2
L
25 Feb
@ Coritiba
1–0
W
16 Feb
@ Ponte Preta
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Chapecoense-sc – last 1
W
22 Feb
vs Brusque
3–0
W
3.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sao Paulo and Chapecoense-sc.
What is the prediction for Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Chapecoense-sc 11%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 2–0 Chapecoense-sc, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc (Serie A) kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Doutor Oswaldo Teixeira Duarte.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
