Value bet: San Lorenzo to win @ 3.50 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPlatense to win ✗38% · @2.34
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓72% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.37
Platense vs San Lorenzo preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Profesional Argentina sees Platense take on San Lorenzo on Saturday 25 April, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente Lopez. Platense are 24th with 36 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while San Lorenzo sit 18th on 41 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Platense's last 5: LWLDD Most recently they lost to Central Cordoba de Santiago 3–4 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
San Lorenzo's last 5: DWDWD Most recently they drew with Velez Sarsfield 0–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
San Lorenzo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 0.9 for Platense and 0.8 for San Lorenzo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 72% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Platense 38%, draw 27%, San Lorenzo 35%.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.50.
Value angle: San Lorenzo to win at 3.50 – 35% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Platense 0–0 San Lorenzo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Platense38%fair 2.61 · @2.34
Draw27%fair 3.69 · @2.80
San Lorenzo35%fair 2.89 · @3.50
1.77Expected goals
0.92Platense xG
0.85San Lorenzo xG
46%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–017%
1–016%
0–115%
1–113%
2–07%
0–26%
From our goals model: Platense 0.9 – 0.8 San Lorenzo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Platense to win✗
38%
2.61
2.34
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.70
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.09
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
53%
1.88
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
25%
4.01
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.37
–
Form
Platense – last 6
LWLDDD
20 Apr
@ Central Cordoba de Santiago
3–4
L
17 Apr
@ Penarol
2–1
W
10 Apr
vs Corinthians
0–2
L
2 Apr
@ Lanus
0–0
D
11 Mar
@ Newells Old Boys
1–1
D
2 Mar
@ Deportivo Riestra
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
San Lorenzo – last 6
DWDWDW
20 Apr
vs Velez Sarsfield
0–0
D
17 Apr
vs Deportivo Cuenca
2–0
W
8 Apr
@ Deportivo Recoleta
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Estudiantes L.P.
1–0
W
25 Mar
@ Deportivo Riestra
1–1
D
21 Mar
vs Deportivo Rincon
5–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Platense and San Lorenzo.
What is the prediction for Platense vs San Lorenzo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Platense vs San Lorenzo?
On our numbers Platense have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 27% and San Lorenzo 35%.
How many goals will there be in Platense vs San Lorenzo?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Platense vs San Lorenzo?
Our predicted score is Platense 0–0 San Lorenzo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Platense vs San Lorenzo?
Platense vs San Lorenzo (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente Lopez.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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