Value bet: Union Santa Fe to win @ 1.65 – our chance 67% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUnion Santa Fe to win ✗67% · @1.65
Double chanceUnion Santa Fe or draw ✗89% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.37
Union Santa Fe vs Newells Old Boys preview and prediction
The match
Newells Old Boys travel to Estadio 15 de Abril in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday 18 April (00:30 WAT) to face Union Santa Fe. Union Santa Fe are 16th with 42 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while Newells Old Boys sit 22nd on 38 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Union Santa Fe's last 5: WDDWW Most recently they beat Agropecuario 2–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Newells Old Boys's last 5: WLLDL Most recently they beat Central Cordoba de Santiago 3–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Union Santa Fe arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.9 for Union Santa Fe and 0.6 for Newells Old Boys. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Union Santa Fe 67%, draw 22%, Newells Old Boys 11%.
Safer route: Union Santa Fe or draw (89%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Union Santa Fe to win at 1.65 – 67% on our numbers against 61% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Union Santa Fe 1–0 Newells Old Boys. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Union Santa Fe67%fair 1.50 · @1.65
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.55
Newells Old Boys11%fair 8.76 · @5.50
2.47Expected goals
1.85Union Santa Fe xG
0.62Newells Old Boys xG
52%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–015%
1–110%
3–09%
2–19%
0–08%
From our goals model: Union Santa Fe 1.9 – 0.6 Newells Old Boys expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Union Santa Fe to win✗
67%
1.50
1.65 ▲
Double chance
Union Santa Fe or draw✗
89%
1.13
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Union Santa Fe ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Union Santa Fe / FT Union Santa Fe✗
43%
2.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.37
–
Form
Union Santa Fe – last 6
WDDWWW
31 Mar
vs Agropecuario
2–0
W
16 Mar
vs Boca Juniors
1–1
D
10 Mar
@ Independiente
4–4
D
1 Mar
@ Instituto Cordoba
2–1
W
26 Feb
@ Sarmiento Junin
3–1
W
23 Feb
vs Aldosivi
1–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Newells Old Boys – last 6
WLLDLL
6 Apr
@ Central Cordoba de Santiago
3–1
W
30 Mar
vs Acassuso
0–2
L
17 Mar
@ Lanus
0–5
L
11 Mar
vs Platense
1–1
D
25 Feb
vs Estudiantes L.P.
0–2
L
21 Feb
@ Banfield
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Union Santa Fe and Newells Old Boys.
What is the prediction for Union Santa Fe vs Newells Old Boys?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Union Santa Fe vs Newells Old Boys?
On our numbers Union Santa Fe have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Newells Old Boys 11%.
How many goals will there be in Union Santa Fe vs Newells Old Boys?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Union Santa Fe vs Newells Old Boys?
Our predicted score is Union Santa Fe 1–0 Newells Old Boys, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Union Santa Fe vs Newells Old Boys?
Union Santa Fe vs Newells Old Boys (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 15 de Abril.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Gimnasia L.P.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto