Independiente vs Defensa Y Justicia prediction & analysis
78%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Independiente to win @ 1.68 – our chance 65% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente to win ✓65% · @1.68
Double chanceIndependiente or draw ✓84% · @1.14
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.33
Independiente vs Defensa Y Justicia preview and prediction
The match
Defensa Y Justicia travel to Libertadores de America in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday 18 April (23:30 WAT) to face Independiente. Independiente are 13th with 47 points from 32 games (in the top half), while Defensa Y Justicia sit 14th on 47 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Independiente's last 5: DWLLD Most recently they drew with Boca Juniors 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Defensa Y Justicia's last 5: LLWWD Most recently they lost to Talleres Cordoba 1–2 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Independiente and 0.7 for Defensa Y Justicia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 48%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Independiente 65%, draw 20%, Defensa Y Justicia 16%.
Safer route: Independiente or draw (84%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Independiente to win at 1.68 – 65% on our numbers against 60% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Independiente 1–0 Defensa Y Justicia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independiente65%fair 1.55 · @1.68
Draw20%fair 5.10 · @3.45
Defensa Y Justicia16%fair 6.34 · @5.50
2.39Expected goals
1.72Independiente xG
0.67Defensa Y Justicia xG
48%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–111%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Independiente 1.7 – 0.7 Defensa Y Justicia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente to win✓
65%
1.55
1.68 ▲
Double chance
Independiente or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.14
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.20
Half-time result
Independiente ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente / FT Independiente✓
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.33
–
Form
Independiente – last 6
DWLLDW
11 Apr
@ Boca Juniors
1–1
D
27 Mar
vs Atenas
4–2
W
22 Mar
vs Talleres Cordoba
1–2
L
17 Mar
@ Instituto Cordoba
1–2
L
10 Mar
vs Union Santa Fe
4–4
D
1 Mar
vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
2–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Defensa Y Justicia – last 6
LLWWDD
13 Apr
vs Talleres Cordoba
1–2
L
7 Apr
@ Instituto Cordoba
0–2
L
1 Apr
vs Chaco For Ever
2–1
W
16 Mar
@ San Lorenzo
5–2
W
12 Mar
vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
1–1
D
2 Mar
vs Lanus
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente and Defensa Y Justicia.
What is the prediction for Independiente vs Defensa Y Justicia?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Independiente vs Defensa Y Justicia?
On our numbers Independiente have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Defensa Y Justicia 16%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente vs Defensa Y Justicia?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente vs Defensa Y Justicia?
Our predicted score is Independiente 1–0 Defensa Y Justicia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Independiente vs Defensa Y Justicia?
Independiente vs Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Libertadores de America.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Gimnasia L.P.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto