Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 50% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVelez Sarsfield to win ✗43% · @2.56
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.38
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.25
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 14.13
San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield preview and prediction
The match
Velez Sarsfield travel to Pedro Bidegain in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday 20 April (23:30 WAT) to face San Lorenzo. San Lorenzo are 18th with 41 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while Velez Sarsfield sit 6th on 56 points (in the top half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
San Lorenzo's last 5: WDWDW Most recently they beat Deportivo Cuenca 2–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Velez Sarsfield's last 5: WWLDW Most recently they beat Central Cordoba de Santiago 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 0.8 for San Lorenzo and 1.1 for Velez Sarsfield. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: San Lorenzo 32%, draw 25%, Velez Sarsfield 43%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 2.25.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.25 – 50% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.38. Predicted score: San Lorenzo 0–1 Velez Sarsfield. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
San Lorenzo32%fair 3.15 · @3.15
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @2.78
Velez Sarsfield43%fair 2.32 · @2.56
1.91Expected goals
0.85San Lorenzo xG
1.06Velez Sarsfield xG
50%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–015%
1–113%
1–013%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: San Lorenzo 0.8 – 1.1 Velez Sarsfield expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Velez Sarsfield to win✗
43%
2.32
2.56 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.34
1.38
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
2.25 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.11
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
23%
4.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
14.13
–
Form
San Lorenzo – last 6
WDWDWL
17 Apr
vs Deportivo Cuenca
2–0
W
8 Apr
@ Deportivo Recoleta
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Estudiantes L.P.
1–0
W
25 Mar
@ Deportivo Riestra
1–1
D
21 Mar
vs Deportivo Rincon
5–0
W
16 Mar
vs Defensa Y Justicia
2–5
L
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Velez Sarsfield – last 6
WWLDWD
14 Apr
vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
1–0
W
7 Apr
vs Deportivo Armenio
4–1
W
3 Apr
@ Gimnasia M.
2–3
L
10 Mar
@ Tigre
1–1
D
2 Mar
@ Estudiantes L.P.
1–0
W
25 Feb
vs Deportivo Riestra
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Lorenzo and Velez Sarsfield.
What is the prediction for San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield?
On our numbers San Lorenzo have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Velez Sarsfield 43%.
How many goals will there be in San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield?
Our predicted score is San Lorenzo 0–1 Velez Sarsfield, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield?
San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Monday 20 April 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Pedro Bidegain.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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