Sarmiento Junin vs Gimnasia L.P. prediction & analysis
64%
Footrivo pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.45 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 51% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSarmiento Junin to win ✗43% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.34
Sarmiento Junin vs Gimnasia L.P. preview and prediction
The match
Sarmiento Junin host Gimnasia L.P. in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday 13 April, with kick-off at 20:30 (WAT) at Estadio Eva Perón. Sarmiento Junin are 19th with 40 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while Gimnasia L.P. sit 5th on 57 points (in the top half). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sarmiento Junin's last 5: WWLDW Most recently they beat Tristan Suarez 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Gimnasia L.P.'s last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Deportivo Camioneros 4–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Sarmiento Junin arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Sarmiento Junin and 1.0 for Gimnasia L.P.. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.15 – 51% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Sarmiento Junin 1–0 Gimnasia L.P.. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sarmiento Junin43%fair 2.33 · @2.38
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @2.90
Gimnasia L.P.33%fair 3.02 · @3.30
2.15Expected goals
1.17Sarmiento Junin xG
0.98Gimnasia L.P. xG
51%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–111%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Sarmiento Junin 1.2 – 1.0 Gimnasia L.P. expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sarmiento Junin to win✗
43%
2.33
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.14
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sarmiento Junin / FT Sarmiento Junin✗
23%
4.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.34
–
Form
Sarmiento Junin – last 6
WWLDWL
9 Apr
vs Tristan Suarez
1–0
W
2 Apr
@ Barracas Central
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ River Plate
0–2
L
11 Mar
vs Racing Club
0–0
D
3 Mar
vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
1–0
W
26 Feb
vs Union Santa Fe
1–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Gimnasia L.P. – last 6
WLLLWD
10 Apr
vs Deportivo Camioneros
4–1
W
5 Apr
vs Huracan
0–3
L
21 Mar
@ Atletico Tucuman
0–1
L
15 Mar
vs Independ. Rivadavia
2–3
L
11 Mar
@ Banfield
2–1
W
2 Mar
@ Tigre
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sarmiento Junin and Gimnasia L.P..
What is the prediction for Sarmiento Junin vs Gimnasia L.P.?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Sarmiento Junin vs Gimnasia L.P.?
On our numbers Sarmiento Junin have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Gimnasia L.P. 33%.
How many goals will there be in Sarmiento Junin vs Gimnasia L.P.?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sarmiento Junin vs Gimnasia L.P.?
Our predicted score is Sarmiento Junin 1–0 Gimnasia L.P., the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Sarmiento Junin vs Gimnasia L.P.?
Sarmiento Junin vs Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Monday 13 April 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Eva Perón.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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