Boca Juniors vs Independiente Prediction, Odds & Analysis – 11 Apr 2026

Quick tips for this match

ResultBoca Juniors to win ✗47% · @2.22

Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.30

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.95

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.38

Boca Juniors vs Independiente preview and prediction

The match

Independiente travel to Alberto Jose Armando in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday 11 April (23:30 WAT) to face Boca Juniors. Boca Juniors are 2nd with 33 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Independiente sit 7th on 23 points (in the top half).

Form guide

Boca Juniors's last 5: WWWDD Most recently they beat U. Catolica 2–1 away. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.

Independiente's last 5: WLLDW Most recently they beat Atenas 4–2 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.

Boca Juniors arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.3.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.3 for Boca Juniors and 1.0 for Independiente. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 54%.

Betting angles

Win chances: Boca Juniors 47%, draw 23%, Independiente 30%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 54% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Boca Juniors 1–0 Independiente. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

Boca Juniors47%fair 2.13 · @2.22

Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.05

Independiente30%fair 3.37 · @3.40

2.27Expected goals

1.31Boca Juniors xG

0.96Independiente xG

54%Both score

40%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–014%

1–113%

0–010%

0–110%

2–09%

2–19%

From our goals model: Boca Juniors 1.3 – 1.0 Independiente expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Boca Juniors to win ✗	47%	2.13	2.22
Double chance	Either team to win ✗	77%	1.31	1.30
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	54%	1.84	1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	65%	1.53	1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	60%	1.66	1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	80%	1.25	1.20
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	46%	2.16	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Boca Juniors / FT Boca Juniors ✗	26%	3.86	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	14%	7.38	–

Form

Boca Juniors – last 6

WWWDDW

8 Apr	@ U. Catolica	2–1	W
3 Apr	@ Talleres Cordoba	1–0	W
23 Mar	vs Instituto Cordoba	2–0	W
16 Mar	@ Union Santa Fe	1–1	D
11 Mar	vs San Lorenzo	1–1	D
5 Mar	@ Lanus	3–0	W

1.7Scored / game

0.5Conceded / game

50%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Independiente – last 6

WLLDWD

27 Mar	vs Atenas	4–2	W
22 Mar	vs Talleres Cordoba	1–2	L
17 Mar	@ Instituto Cordoba	1–2	L
10 Mar	vs Union Santa Fe	4–4	D
1 Mar	vs Central Cordoba de Santiago	2–0	W
25 Feb	@ Gimnasia M.	1–1	D

2.2Scored / game

1.8Conceded / game

83%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	+12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	+13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	+6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	+4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	+4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	+3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	+4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11

Team

Pts

+12

+13

-3

-8

-5

Central Cordoba de Santiago

-10

Newells Old Boys

-12

Deportivo Riestra

-7

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Boca Juniors vs Independiente?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Boca Juniors vs Independiente?

On our numbers Boca Juniors have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Independiente 30%.

How many goals will there be in Boca Juniors vs Independiente?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Boca Juniors vs Independiente?

Our predicted score is Boca Juniors 1–0 Independiente, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Boca Juniors vs Independiente?

Boca Juniors vs Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Alberto Jose Armando.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

By day

Match result

Goals

Exact outcomes