Value bet: Sarmiento Junin to win @ 3.50 – our chance 31% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBarracas Central to win ✗44% · @2.34
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗70% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 6.04
Barracas Central vs Sarmiento Junin preview and prediction
The match
Sarmiento Junin travel to Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Thursday 2 April (19:00 WAT) to face Barracas Central. Barracas Central are 12th with 47 points from 32 games (in the top half), while Sarmiento Junin sit 19th on 40 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Barracas Central's last 5: DWWDW Most recently they drew with Huracan 0–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Sarmiento Junin's last 5: LDWLL Most recently they lost to River Plate 0–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Barracas Central arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.1 for Barracas Central and 0.8 for Sarmiento Junin. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Barracas Central 44%, draw 25%, Sarmiento Junin 31%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Sarmiento Junin to win at 3.50 – 31% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.38. Predicted score: Barracas Central 1–0 Sarmiento Junin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Barracas Central44%fair 2.26 · @2.34
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @2.80
Sarmiento Junin31%fair 3.27 · @3.50
1.85Expected goals
1.05Barracas Central xG
0.80Sarmiento Junin xG
47%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
0–016%
1–113%
0–113%
2–09%
2–17%
From our goals model: Barracas Central 1.1 – 0.8 Sarmiento Junin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Barracas Central to win✗
44%
2.26
2.34
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.67
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.10
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
52%
1.93
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
24%
4.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
6.04
–
Form
Barracas Central – last 6
DWWDWL
24 Mar
@ Huracan
0–0
D
16 Mar
vs Atletico Tucuman
2–1
W
12 Mar
@ Independ. Rivadavia
2–1
W
1 Mar
@ Argentinos JRS
1–1
D
25 Feb
vs Tigre
2–1
W
16 Feb
@ Rosario Central
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sarmiento Junin – last 6
LDWLLL
15 Mar
@ River Plate
0–2
L
11 Mar
vs Racing Club
0–0
D
3 Mar
vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
1–0
W
26 Feb
vs Union Santa Fe
1–3
L
20 Feb
@ Estudiantes L.P.
0–1
L
14 Feb
@ Huracan
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Barracas Central and Sarmiento Junin.
What is the prediction for Barracas Central vs Sarmiento Junin?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Barracas Central vs Sarmiento Junin?
On our numbers Barracas Central have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sarmiento Junin 31%.
How many goals will there be in Barracas Central vs Sarmiento Junin?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Barracas Central vs Sarmiento Junin?
Our predicted score is Barracas Central 1–0 Sarmiento Junin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Barracas Central vs Sarmiento Junin?
Barracas Central vs Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Thursday 2 April 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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