Velez Sarsfield vs Newells Old Boys prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Velez Sarsfield to win @ 1.62 – our chance 68% vs 62% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVelez Sarsfield to win ✗68% · @1.62
Double chanceVelez Sarsfield or draw ✓91% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.59
Velez Sarsfield vs Newells Old Boys preview and prediction
The match
Newells Old Boys travel to Jose Amalfitani in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday 4 May (23:15 WAT) to face Velez Sarsfield. Velez Sarsfield are 6th with 56 points from 32 games (in the top half), while Newells Old Boys sit 22nd on 38 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Velez Sarsfield's last 5: WDDWW Most recently they beat Gimnasia Y Tiro 2–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Newells Old Boys's last 5: WWLLD Most recently they beat Union Santa Fe 3–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Velez Sarsfield arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.8 for Velez Sarsfield and 0.5 for Newells Old Boys. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Velez Sarsfield 68%, draw 23%, Newells Old Boys 9%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 2.15.
Value angle: Velez Sarsfield to win at 1.62 – 68% on our numbers against 62% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Velez Sarsfield 1–0 Newells Old Boys. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Velez Sarsfield68%fair 1.46 · @1.62
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.50
Newells Old Boys9%fair 11.09 · @6.00
2.31Expected goals
1.81Velez Sarsfield xG
0.51Newells Old Boys xG
50%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–016%
0–010%
3–010%
1–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: Velez Sarsfield 1.8 – 0.5 Newells Old Boys expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Velez Sarsfield to win✗
68%
1.46
1.62 ▲
Double chance
Velez Sarsfield or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Half-time result
Velez Sarsfield ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Velez Sarsfield / FT Velez Sarsfield✗
44%
2.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.59
–
Form
Velez Sarsfield – last 6
WDDWWL
1 May
vs Gimnasia Y Tiro
2–0
W
27 Apr
vs Union Santa Fe
2–2
D
20 Apr
@ San Lorenzo
0–0
D
14 Apr
vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
1–0
W
7 Apr
vs Deportivo Armenio
4–1
W
3 Apr
@ Gimnasia M.
2–3
L
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Newells Old Boys – last 6
WWLLDL
18 Apr
@ Union Santa Fe
3–2
W
6 Apr
@ Central Cordoba de Santiago
3–1
W
30 Mar
vs Acassuso
0–2
L
17 Mar
@ Lanus
0–5
L
11 Mar
vs Platense
1–1
D
25 Feb
vs Estudiantes L.P.
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Velez Sarsfield and Newells Old Boys.
What is the prediction for Velez Sarsfield vs Newells Old Boys?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Velez Sarsfield vs Newells Old Boys?
On our numbers Velez Sarsfield have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Newells Old Boys 9%.
How many goals will there be in Velez Sarsfield vs Newells Old Boys?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Velez Sarsfield vs Newells Old Boys?
Our predicted score is Velez Sarsfield 1–0 Newells Old Boys, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Velez Sarsfield vs Newells Old Boys?
Velez Sarsfield vs Newells Old Boys (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 23:15 (West Africa Time) at Jose Amalfitani.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
