Gimnasia M. vs Defensa Y Justicia prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.38 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.38Odds
2
Value bet: Defensa Y Justicia to win @ 3.35 – our chance 32% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGimnasia M. to win ✓44% · @2.34
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.55
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · @1.11
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.17
Gimnasia M. vs Defensa Y Justicia preview and prediction
The match
Gimnasia M. host Defensa Y Justicia in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday 4 May, with kick-off at 21:00 (WAT) at Víctor Legrotaglie. Gimnasia M. are 17th with 41 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while Defensa Y Justicia sit 14th on 47 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Gimnasia M.'s last 5: WWLDD Most recently they beat Lanus 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 5. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Defensa Y Justicia's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Boca Juniors 0–4 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.2 for Gimnasia M. and 1.0 for Defensa Y Justicia. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Gimnasia M. 44%, draw 24%, Defensa Y Justicia 32%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.55.
Value angle: Defensa Y Justicia to win at 3.35 – 32% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.38. Predicted score: Gimnasia M. 1–0 Defensa Y Justicia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gimnasia M.44%fair 2.29 · @2.34
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @2.90
Defensa Y Justicia32%fair 3.10 · @3.35
2.13Expected goals
1.18Gimnasia M. xG
0.96Defensa Y Justicia xG
48%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–111%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Gimnasia M. 1.2 – 1.0 Defensa Y Justicia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gimnasia M. to win✓
44%
2.29
2.34
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.35
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.65
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.51
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.11
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gimnasia M. / FT Gimnasia M.✗
23%
4.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.17
–
Form
Gimnasia M. – last 6
WWLDDL
21 Apr
vs Lanus
1–0
W
3 Apr
vs Velez Sarsfield
3–2
W
18 Mar
vs Estudiantes L.P.
1–2
L
12 Mar
@ Deportivo Riestra
0–0
D
25 Feb
vs Independiente
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Gimnasia L.P.
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Defensa Y Justicia – last 6
LLLLWW
24 Apr
vs Boca Juniors
0–4
L
18 Apr
@ Independiente
1–3
L
13 Apr
vs Talleres Cordoba
1–2
L
7 Apr
@ Instituto Cordoba
0–2
L
1 Apr
vs Chaco For Ever
2–1
W
16 Mar
@ San Lorenzo
5–2
W
1.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gimnasia M. and Defensa Y Justicia.
What is the prediction for Gimnasia M. vs Defensa Y Justicia?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Gimnasia M. vs Defensa Y Justicia?
On our numbers Gimnasia M. have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Defensa Y Justicia 32%.
How many goals will there be in Gimnasia M. vs Defensa Y Justicia?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gimnasia M. vs Defensa Y Justicia?
Our predicted score is Gimnasia M. 1–0 Defensa Y Justicia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Gimnasia M. vs Defensa Y Justicia?
Gimnasia M. vs Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Víctor Legrotaglie.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
