Value bet: Lanus to win @ 3.85 – our chance 33% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +29%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente to win43% · @2.14
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals81% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–012% · fair 8.32
Independiente vs Lanus preview and prediction
The match
Independiente host Lanus in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday 14 February, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Libertadores de America. Independiente are 13th with 47 points from 32 games (in the top half), while Lanus sit 9th on 50 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Independiente and 1.1 for Lanus. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Lanus to win at 3.85 – 33% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Independiente 1–1 Lanus. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independiente43%fair 2.35 · @2.14
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @2.92
Lanus33%fair 2.99 · @3.85
2.36Expected goals
1.28Independiente xG
1.09Lanus xG
53%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Independiente 1.3 – 1.1 Lanus expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente to win
43%
2.35
2.14
Double chance
Either team to win
76%
1.31
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
53%
1.90
2.20 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
64%
1.56
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
61%
1.63
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
81%
1.24
1.14
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente / FT Independiente
23%
4.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
12%
8.32
–
Form
Independiente
No recent results on record.
Lanus
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente and Lanus.
What is the prediction for Independiente vs Lanus?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Independiente vs Lanus?
On our numbers Independiente have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lanus 33%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente vs Lanus?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente vs Lanus?
Our predicted score is Independiente 1–1 Lanus, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Independiente vs Lanus?
Independiente vs Lanus (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Libertadores de America.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Banfield
Racing Club
Huracan1
Sarmiento Junin0