Value bet: Étoile Carouge to win @ 2.40 – our chance 47% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultÉtoile Carouge to win ✓47% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.97
Bellinzona vs Étoile Carouge preview and prediction
The match
Étoile Carouge travel to Stadio Comunale Bellinzona in the Challenge League on Friday 13 March (19:30 WAT) to face Bellinzona.
Form guide
Bellinzona's last 3: LLL Most recently they lost to Yverdon Sport 0–4 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Étoile Carouge's last 3: LDL Most recently they lost to FC Aarau 0–3 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 2.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.2 for Bellinzona and 1.5 for Étoile Carouge. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Étoile Carouge to win at 2.40 – 47% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Bellinzona 1–1 Étoile Carouge. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bellinzona33%fair 3.08 · @2.60
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.35
Étoile Carouge47%fair 2.14 · @2.40
2.73Expected goals
1.21Bellinzona xG
1.52Étoile Carouge xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Bellinzona 1.2 – 1.5 Étoile Carouge expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Étoile Carouge to win✓
47%
2.14
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.36
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Étoile Carouge / FT Étoile Carouge✗
26%
3.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.97
–
Form
Bellinzona – last 3
LLL
27 Feb
vs Yverdon Sport
0–4
L
20 Feb
@ Rapperswil
1–2
L
13 Feb
vs FC Vaduz
0–2
L
0.3Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Étoile Carouge – last 3
LDL
6 Mar
vs FC Aarau
0–3
L
20 Feb
vs Yverdon Sport
2–2
D
13 Feb
vs Neuchatel Xamax FC
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bellinzona and Étoile Carouge.
What is the prediction for Bellinzona vs Étoile Carouge?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Bellinzona vs Étoile Carouge?
On our numbers Bellinzona have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Étoile Carouge 47%.
How many goals will there be in Bellinzona vs Étoile Carouge?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bellinzona vs Étoile Carouge?
Our predicted score is Bellinzona 1–1 Étoile Carouge, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Bellinzona vs Étoile Carouge?
Bellinzona vs Étoile Carouge (Challenge League) kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Comunale Bellinzona.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
FC Vaduz0