Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.20 – our chance 53% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNK Varazdin to win ✗48% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.90
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.23
NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica preview and prediction
The match
NK Varazdin host HNK Gorica in the Cup on Wednesday 4 March, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Gradski stadion Varazdin.
Form guide
HNK Gorica's last 3: LWD Most recently they lost to Dinamo Zagreb 2–4 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.1 for NK Varazdin and 1.2 for HNK Gorica. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 53% and both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: NK Varazdin 48%, draw 24%, HNK Gorica 28%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 2.20 – 53% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.40, above our fair price of 1.33, so there is value in it. Predicted score: NK Varazdin 2–1 HNK Gorica. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
NK Varazdin48%fair 2.08 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.20
HNK Gorica28%fair 3.60 · @3.10
3.27Expected goals
2.08NK Varazdin xG
1.19HNK Gorica xG
58%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–19%
2–08%
1–08%
3–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: NK Varazdin 2.1 – 1.2 HNK Gorica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
NK Varazdin
HNK Gorica
Attack vs Cup average
-2%
+5%
Goals conceded vs average
-30%
+3%
Our expected goals here
1.71
0.75
Our own ratings from every Cup result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
NK Varazdin to win✗
48%
2.08
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.90 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.40 ▲
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
2.20 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.20
Half-time result
NK Varazdin ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT NK Varazdin / FT NK Varazdin✗
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.23
–
Form
NK Varazdin – last 1
L
22 Feb
vs Dinamo Zagreb
0–4
L
0.0Scored / game
4.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
HNK Gorica – last 3
LWD
1 Mar
@ Dinamo Zagreb
2–4
L
21 Feb
@ Istra 1961
2–0
W
15 Feb
vs Vukovar
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between NK Varazdin and HNK Gorica.
What is the prediction for NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica?
On our numbers NK Varazdin have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 24% and HNK Gorica 28%.
How many goals will there be in NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica?
Our predicted score is NK Varazdin 2–1 HNK Gorica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica?
NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica (Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Gradski stadion Varazdin.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Dinamo Zagreb2
Kurilovec0
HNK Rijeka3
HNK Hajduk Split2