Value bet: Philadelphia Union to win @ 2.50 – our chance 44% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPhiladelphia Union to win ✓44% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓68% · @1.36
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓67% · fair 1.50
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.58
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union preview and prediction
The match
The Major League Soccer sees Chicago Fire take on Philadelphia Union on Thursday 15 October, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Soldier Field. Chicago Fire are 4th with 55 points from 34 games (in the top four), while Philadelphia Union sit 6th on 50 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Chicago Fire's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat New York City FC 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Philadelphia Union's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Real Salt Lake 2–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 3.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Philadelphia Union arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 1.6 for Chicago Fire and 1.8 for Philadelphia Union. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 67% and both teams to score at 68%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Chicago Fire 36%, draw 20%, Philadelphia Union 44%.
Both teams to score: yes (68%) at 1.36.
Value angle: Philadelphia Union to win at 2.50 – 44% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 68% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Chicago Fire 1–1 Philadelphia Union. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chicago Fire36%fair 2.81 · @2.38
Draw20%fair 4.96 · @3.60
Philadelphia Union44%fair 2.26 · @2.50
3.43Expected goals
1.61Chicago Fire xG
1.82Philadelphia Union xG
68%Both score
67%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
1–29%
2–18%
2–27%
0–16%
0–25%
From our goals model: Chicago Fire 1.6 – 1.8 Philadelphia Union expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Philadelphia Union to win✓
44%
2.26
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
68%
1.46
1.36
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
37%
2.74
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Philadelphia Union / FT Philadelphia Union✗
26%
3.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.58
–
Form
Chicago Fire – last 6
WWWLLD
10 Oct
vs New York City FC
2–1
W
7 Oct
vs Vancouver Whitecaps
3–1
W
27 Sep
@ Charlotte
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Nashville SC
0–3
L
13 Sep
vs New England Revolution
1–2
L
10 Sep
vs Inter Miami
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Philadelphia Union – last 6
WWWWWW
11 Oct
vs Real Salt Lake
2–1
W
27 Sep
vs Orlando City SC
4–2
W
20 Sep
@ Sporting Kansas City
4–3
W
14 Sep
@ San Diego
5–0
W
10 Sep
vs FC Cincinnati
5–0
W
6 Sep
vs CF Montreal
2–0
W
3.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union.
What is the prediction for Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?
On our numbers Chicago Fire have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Philadelphia Union 44%.
How many goals will there be in Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?
Our predicted score is Chicago Fire 1–1 Philadelphia Union, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Soldier Field.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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