Chicago Fire vs New York City FC prediction & analysis
84%
Footrivo pick
Chicago Fire or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Chicago Fire to win @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultChicago Fire to win ✓60% · @1.80
Double chanceChicago Fire or draw ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.05
Chicago Fire vs New York City FC preview and prediction
The match
The Major League Soccer sees Chicago Fire take on New York City FC on Saturday 10 October, kicking off at 19:30 (WAT) at Soldier Field. Chicago Fire are 4th with 55 points from 34 games (in the top four), while New York City FC sit 11th on 42 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Chicago Fire's last 5: WWLLD Most recently they beat Vancouver Whitecaps 3–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
New York City FC's last 5: DLWLD Most recently they drew with Atlanta United FC 2–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 26 July 2026, finished New York City FC 3–1 Chicago Fire.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.1 for Chicago Fire and 1.0 for New York City FC. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 59% and both teams to score at 63%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Chicago Fire 60%, draw 24%, New York City FC 16%.
Safer route: Chicago Fire or draw (84%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.50.
Value angle: Chicago Fire to win at 1.80 – 60% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Chicago Fire or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Chicago Fire 2–1 New York City FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chicago Fire60%fair 1.67 · @1.80
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.60
New York City FC16%fair 6.20 · @3.70
3.06Expected goals
2.06Chicago Fire xG
1.00New York City FC xG
63%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–010%
1–110%
1–010%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Chicago Fire 2.1 – 1.0 New York City FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?
Our pick is Chicago Fire or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?
On our numbers Chicago Fire have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 24% and New York City FC 16%.
How many goals will there be in Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?
Our predicted score is Chicago Fire 2–1 New York City FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?
Chicago Fire vs New York City FC (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Soldier Field.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
