St. Louis City vs Toronto FC prediction & analysis
85%
Footrivo pick
St. Louis City or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: St. Louis City to win @ 1.65 – our chance 66% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSt. Louis City to win ✓66% · @1.65
Double chanceSt. Louis City or draw ✓85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.94
St. Louis City vs Toronto FC preview and prediction
The match
Toronto FC travel to Energizer Park in the Major League Soccer on Sunday 20 September (01:30 WAT) to face St. Louis City. St. Louis City are 3rd with 54 points from 34 games (in the top four), while Toronto FC sit 12th on 39 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
St. Louis City's last 5: WWDWD Most recently they beat Colorado Rapids 3–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game.
Toronto FC's last 5: LWDDW Most recently they lost to Orlando City SC 0–3 away. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
St. Louis City arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.2 for St. Louis City and 1.0 for Toronto FC. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 62% and both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: St. Louis City 66%, draw 19%, Toronto FC 15%.
Safer route: St. Louis City or draw (85%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.50.
Value angle: St. Louis City to win at 1.65 – 66% on our numbers against 61% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was St. Louis City or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: St. Louis City 2–0 Toronto FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
St. Louis City66%fair 1.52 · @1.65
Draw19%fair 5.19 · @4.00
Toronto FC15%fair 6.71 · @4.33
3.22Expected goals
2.24St. Louis City xG
0.98Toronto FC xG
60%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: St. Louis City 2.2 – 1.0 Toronto FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
St. Louis City to win✓
66%
1.52
1.65 ▲
Double chance
St. Louis City or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
St. Louis City ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT St. Louis City / FT St. Louis City✓
43%
2.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
9.94
–
Form
St. Louis City – last 6
WWDWDW
17 Sep
@ Colorado Rapids
3–0
W
13 Sep
vs Minnesota United FC
4–2
W
10 Sep
@ Portland Timbers
2–2
D
6 Sep
@ Vancouver Whitecaps
3–1
W
31 Aug
vs FC Dallas
3–3
D
23 Aug
vs Houston Dynamo
2–1
W
2.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Toronto FC – last 6
LWDDWD
13 Sep
@ Orlando City SC
0–3
L
10 Sep
vs Nashville SC
2–1
W
6 Sep
vs Chicago Fire
4–4
D
30 Aug
vs New York City FC
1–1
D
23 Aug
@ Inter Miami
2–1
W
20 Aug
vs Charlotte
3–3
D
2.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between St. Louis City and Toronto FC.
What is the prediction for St. Louis City vs Toronto FC?
Our pick is St. Louis City or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win St. Louis City vs Toronto FC?
On our numbers St. Louis City have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Toronto FC 15%.
How many goals will there be in St. Louis City vs Toronto FC?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for St. Louis City vs Toronto FC?
Our predicted score is St. Louis City 2–0 Toronto FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is St. Louis City vs Toronto FC?
St. Louis City vs Toronto FC (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Energizer Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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