Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Toronto FC to win @ 3.35 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCF Montreal to win ✗47% · @1.97
Double chanceEither team to win ✗81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗82% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.25
CF Montreal vs Toronto FC preview and prediction
The match
The Major League Soccer sees CF Montreal take on Toronto FC on Friday 17 July, kicking off at 00:30 (WAT) at Saputo Stadium. CF Montreal are 15th with 26 points from 34 games (in the bottom three), while Toronto FC sit 12th on 39 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
CF Montreal's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat Vancouver FC 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game.
Toronto FC's last 5: LLLDW Most recently they lost to Chicago Fire 1–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 2.3 conceded.
CF Montreal arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 1.8 for CF Montreal and 1.5 for Toronto FC. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: CF Montreal 47%, draw 19%, Toronto FC 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.55.
Value angle: Toronto FC to win at 3.35 – 34% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 82% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: CF Montreal 1–1 Toronto FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
CF Montreal47%fair 2.15 · @1.97
Draw19%fair 5.19 · @3.80
Toronto FC34%fair 2.93 · @3.35
3.37Expected goals
1.83CF Montreal xG
1.53Toronto FC xG
64%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–19%
1–27%
2–27%
1–06%
2–06%
From our goals model: CF Montreal 1.8 – 1.5 Toronto FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CF Montreal to win✗
47%
2.15
1.97
Double chance
Either team to win✗
81%
1.24
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.57
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.50
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
37%
2.71
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CF Montreal / FT CF Montreal✗
27%
3.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.25
–
Form
CF Montreal – last 6
WWDDWL
13 Jul
vs Vancouver FC
2–1
W
9 Jul
@ Vancouver FC
2–1
W
24 May
@ DC United
4–4
D
14 May
vs Portland Timbers
2–2
D
7 May
vs Calgary Blizzard SC
5–0
W
3 May
@ Atlanta United FC
1–3
L
2.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Toronto FC – last 6
LLLDWL
24 May
@ Chicago Fire
1–2
L
17 May
@ Charlotte
1–3
L
6 May
vs Atlético Ottawa
1–3
L
23 Apr
vs Philadelphia Union
3–3
D
9 Mar
@ FC Cincinnati
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ Vancouver Whitecaps
0–3
L
1.2Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CF Montreal and Toronto FC.
What is the prediction for CF Montreal vs Toronto FC?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win CF Montreal vs Toronto FC?
On our numbers CF Montreal have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Toronto FC 34%.
How many goals will there be in CF Montreal vs Toronto FC?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CF Montreal vs Toronto FC?
Our predicted score is CF Montreal 1–1 Toronto FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is CF Montreal vs Toronto FC?
CF Montreal vs Toronto FC (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Friday 17 July 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Saputo Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
St. Louis City3
Sporting Kansas City2
Seattle Sounders1
Portland Timbers5