St. Louis City vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction & analysis
64%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
2
Value bet: San Jose Earthquakes to win @ 2.48 – our chance 43% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSan Jose Earthquakes to win ✓43% · @2.48
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.48
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.30
St. Louis City vs San Jose Earthquakes preview and prediction
The match
St. Louis City host San Jose Earthquakes in the Major League Soccer on Sunday 26 April, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT) at Energizer Park. St. Louis City are 3rd with 54 points from 34 games (in the top four), while San Jose Earthquakes sit 4th on 52 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
St. Louis City's last 5: LWDDW Most recently they lost to Seattle Sounders 1–4 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
San Jose Earthquakes's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Austin 5–1 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 3.0 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
San Jose Earthquakes arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.4 for St. Louis City and 1.5 for San Jose Earthquakes. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: St. Louis City 36%, draw 21%, San Jose Earthquakes 43%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.48.
Value angle: San Jose Earthquakes to win at 2.48 – 43% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: St. Louis City 1–1 San Jose Earthquakes. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
St. Louis City36%fair 2.81 · @2.50
Draw21%fair 4.70 · @3.80
San Jose Earthquakes43%fair 2.32 · @2.48
2.91Expected goals
1.37St. Louis City xG
1.54San Jose Earthquakes xG
64%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–07%
0–26%
From our goals model: St. Louis City 1.4 – 1.5 San Jose Earthquakes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Jose Earthquakes to win✓
43%
2.32
2.48 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.56
1.48
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.55
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT San Jose Earthquakes / FT San Jose Earthquakes✓
25%
4.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.30
–
Form
St. Louis City – last 6
LWDDWL
19 Apr
@ Seattle Sounders
1–4
L
16 Apr
vs FC Tulsa
4–0
W
12 Apr
@ FC Dallas
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ New York City FC
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs New England Revolution
3–1
W
15 Mar
@ Los Angeles FC
0–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
San Jose Earthquakes – last 6
WWWWWW
23 Apr
vs Austin
5–1
W
20 Apr
@ Los Angeles FC
4–1
W
16 Apr
vs Phoenix Rising
2–0
W
12 Apr
@ Sporting Kansas City
3–1
W
5 Apr
vs San Diego
3–0
W
22 Mar
@ Vancouver Whitecaps
1–0
W
3.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between St. Louis City and San Jose Earthquakes.
What is the prediction for St. Louis City vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win St. Louis City vs San Jose Earthquakes?
On our numbers St. Louis City have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 21% and San Jose Earthquakes 43%.
How many goals will there be in St. Louis City vs San Jose Earthquakes?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for St. Louis City vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Our predicted score is St. Louis City 1–1 San Jose Earthquakes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is St. Louis City vs San Jose Earthquakes?
St. Louis City vs San Jose Earthquakes (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Energizer Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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