Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Germany to win @ 1.87 – our chance 64% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGermany to win ✗64% · @1.87
Double chanceEither team to win ✓85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.61
Ecuador vs Germany preview and prediction
The match
The World Cup sees Ecuador take on Germany on Thursday 25 June, kicking off at 21:00 (WAT) at MetLife Stadium.
Form guide
Ecuador's last 5: DLWWD Most recently they drew with Curaçao 0–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Germany's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Ivory Coast 2–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 3.5 goals a game.
Germany arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.0 for Ecuador and 2.0 for Germany. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 56% and both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ecuador 21%, draw 15%, Germany 64%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Germany to win at 1.87 – 64% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Ecuador 0–2 Germany. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ecuador21%fair 4.75 · @3.60
Draw15%fair 6.80 · @3.90
Germany64%fair 1.56 · @1.87
2.95Expected goals
0.97Ecuador xG
1.98Germany xG
58%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–110%
0–210%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Ecuador 1.0 – 2.0 Germany expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Germany to win✗
64%
1.56
1.87 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
85%
1.17
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.42
Half-time result
Germany ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Germany / FT Germany✗
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.61
–
Form
Ecuador – last 6
DLWWDD
21 Jun
vs Curaçao
0–0
D
15 Jun
@ Ivory Coast
0–1
L
7 Jun
vs Guatemala
3–0
W
31 May
vs Saudi Arabia
2–1
W
31 Mar
@ Netherlands
1–1
D
27 Mar
@ Morocco
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Germany – last 6
WWWWWW
20 Jun
vs Ivory Coast
2–1
W
14 Jun
vs Curaçao
7–1
W
6 Jun
@ USA
2–1
W
31 May
vs Finland
4–0
W
30 Mar
vs Ghana
2–1
W
27 Mar
@ Switzerland
4–3
W
3.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ecuador and Germany.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ecuador vs Germany?
On our numbers Ecuador have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Germany 64%.
How many goals will there be in Ecuador vs Germany?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ecuador vs Germany?
Our predicted score is Ecuador 0–2 Germany, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Ecuador vs Germany?
Ecuador vs Germany (World Cup) kicks off on Thursday 25 June 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at MetLife Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
South Africa1
South Korea0
Czechia0
Mexico3
Curaçao0
Ivory Coast2