Norway vs Senegal prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
Value bet: Norway to win @ 2.20 – our chance 53% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Norway 2.1 – 1.4 Senegal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Norway hold the edge on home soil with a 53% chance of winning, against 25% for Senegal.
Norway have taken 8 points from their last 5 matches (2W 2D 1L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.0 per game. Senegal have 4 points from their last 4 (1W 1D 2L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded. Norway come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.6 goals (2.1 for Norway, 1.4 for Senegal). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 1–1 (9%), 2–2 (7%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 80% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is better than our fair price of 1.26, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Norway to win at 2.20 is our value angle (53% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Norway to win ✓ | 53% | 1.89 | 2.20 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.73 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.26 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.69 | 1.93 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 62% | 1.61 | 1.30 |
| Half-time result | Norway ahead at half-time ✓ | 41% | 2.44 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Norway / FT Norway ✓ | 34% | 2.97 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 10.87 | – |
Form
Norway – last 5
| 16 Jun | @ Iraq | 4–1 | W |
| 7 Jun | @ Morocco | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Jun | vs Sweden | 3–1 | W |
| 31 Mar | vs Switzerland | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Mar | @ Netherlands | 1–2 | L |
Senegal – last 4
| 16 Jun | @ France | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Jun | @ Saudi Arabia | 0–0 | D |
| 31 May | @ USA | 2–3 | L |
| 31 Mar | vs Gambia | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Norway and Senegal.
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What is the prediction for Norway vs Senegal?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Norway vs Senegal?
On our numbers Norway have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Senegal 25%.
How many goals will there be in Norway vs Senegal?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
When is Norway vs Senegal?
Norway vs Senegal (World Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 23 June 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at MetLife Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.