Value bet: USA to win @ 2.08 – our chance 55% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultUSA to win ✓55% · @2.08
Double chanceUSA or draw ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.41
USA vs Paraguay preview and prediction
The match
USA host Paraguay in the World Cup on Saturday 13 June, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT) at SoFi Stadium.
Form guide
USA's last 3: LWL Most recently they lost to Germany 1–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Paraguay's last 3: WLW Most recently they beat Nicaragua 4–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Paraguay arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.4 for USA and 0.8 for Paraguay. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 38%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: USA 55%, draw 23%, Paraguay 22%.
Safer route: USA or draw (78%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.05.
Value angle: USA to win at 2.08 – 55% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was USA or draw – a 78% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: USA 1–0 Paraguay. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
USA55%fair 1.82 · @2.08
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.15
Paraguay22%fair 4.46 · @3.80
2.23Expected goals
1.45USA xG
0.78Paraguay xG
54%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
1–112%
2–011%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: USA 1.4 – 0.8 Paraguay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
USA to win✓
55%
1.82
2.08 ▲
Double chance
USA or draw✓
78%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.87
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.55
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT USA / FT USA✓
32%
3.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.41
–
Form
USA – last 3
LWL
6 Jun
vs Germany
1–2
L
31 May
vs Senegal
3–2
W
1 Apr
vs Portugal
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Paraguay – last 3
WLW
5 Jun
vs Nicaragua
4–0
W
31 Mar
@ Morocco
1–2
L
27 Mar
@ Greece
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between USA and Paraguay.
Our pick is USA or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win USA vs Paraguay?
On our numbers USA have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Paraguay 22%.
How many goals will there be in USA vs Paraguay?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for USA vs Paraguay?
Our predicted score is USA 1–0 Paraguay, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is USA vs Paraguay?
USA vs Paraguay (World Cup) kicks off on Saturday 13 June 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at SoFi Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Qatar1
Switzerland1
Brazil1
Morocco1