Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion prediction & analysis
64%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
1
Value bet: Sportivo Ameliano to win @ 2.82 – our chance 40% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSportivo Ameliano to win ✗40% · @2.82
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.87
Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion preview and prediction
The match
Sportivo Ameliano host Nacional Asuncion in the Division Profesional Clausura on Saturday 25 July, with kick-off at 22:30 (WAT). Sportivo Ameliano are 9th with 19 points from 19 games (in the bottom half), while Nacional Asuncion sit 4th on 32 points (in the top four). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sportivo Ameliano's last 5: LWDDD Most recently they lost to Sportivo Trinidense 1–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Nacional Asuncion's last 5: WWWDD Most recently they beat Libertad Asuncion 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Nacional Asuncion arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 21 April 2026, finished Sportivo Ameliano 1–1 Nacional Asuncion. Across their last 2 meetings Sportivo Ameliano have won 0, Nacional Asuncion 0, with 2 draws and 2.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Sportivo Ameliano and 1.1 for Nacional Asuncion. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 38%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sportivo Ameliano 40%, draw 25%, Nacional Asuncion 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Sportivo Ameliano to win at 2.82 – 40% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Sportivo Ameliano 1–1 Nacional Asuncion. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sportivo Ameliano40%fair 2.51 · @2.82
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @2.98
Nacional Asuncion35%fair 2.89 · @2.50
2.21Expected goals
1.16Sportivo Ameliano xG
1.05Nacional Asuncion xG
51%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Sportivo Ameliano 1.2 – 1.1 Nacional Asuncion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion?
On our numbers Sportivo Ameliano have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Nacional Asuncion 35%.
How many goals will there be in Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion?
Our predicted score is Sportivo Ameliano 1–1 Nacional Asuncion, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion?
Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional Clausura) kicks off on Saturday 25 July 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
