Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓60% · fair 1.67
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69% · fair 1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓15% · fair 6.63
Mara Sugar vs Shabana preview and prediction
The match
Shabana travel to face Mara Sugar in the FKF Premier League on Wednesday 13 May (12:00 WAT). Mara Sugar are 6th with 9 points from 6 games (in the top half), while Shabana sit 5th on 9 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Mara Sugar's last 5: WWWDL Most recently they beat Tusker 1–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Shabana's last 5: DLLWL Most recently they drew with Ulinzi Stars 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Mara Sugar arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.1 for Mara Sugar and 0.9 for Shabana. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mara Sugar 49%, draw 11%, Shabana 40%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 87% chance. Predicted score: Mara Sugar 1–0 Shabana. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mara Sugar49%fair 2.04
Draw11%fair 9.09
Shabana40%fair 2.50
1.95Expected goals
1.06Mara Sugar xG
0.89Shabana xG
40%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
0–014%
1–113%
0–113%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Mara Sugar 1.1 – 0.9 Shabana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mara Sugar to win✓
49%
2.04
–
Double chance
Either team to win✓
89%
1.12
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
15%
6.63
–
Form
Mara Sugar – last 6
WWWDLD
24 Apr
@ Tusker
1–0
W
18 Apr
@ Kariobangi Sharks
1–0
W
6 Apr
vs Posta Rangers FC
1–0
W
1 Apr
@ Nairobi United
1–1
D
28 Mar
@ KCB
0–1
L
21 Mar
vs APS Bomet
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Shabana – last 6
DLLWLL
9 May
vs Ulinzi Stars
0–0
D
2 May
vs Police
0–1
L
5 Apr
@ Nairobi United
0–3
L
29 Mar
vs Murang'a SEAL
1–0
W
15 Mar
vs Kariobangi Sharks
1–2
L
1 Mar
@ AFC Leopards
1–5
L
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mara Sugar and Shabana.
On our numbers Mara Sugar have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Shabana 40%.
How many goals will there be in Mara Sugar vs Shabana?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mara Sugar vs Shabana?
Our predicted score is Mara Sugar 1–0 Shabana, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Mara Sugar vs Shabana?
Mara Sugar vs Shabana (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
